2009-10 Faculty in the News

Mershon Center affiliated faculty are frequently in the spotlight, as reporters seek them out for expert commentary on today's headlines. Topics include national security, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia and the Cold War, and U.S. foreign relations, among others. Media outlets range from national newspapers to local television and radio stations to student blogs.

Below is a selection of media coverage for Mershon affiliated faculty members. The links will direct you to sites that are not associated with the Mershon Center. They are subject to change, and some may expire or require registration. For more information, contact Cathy Becker, Public Relations Coordinator, at becker.271@osu.edu or (614) 292-7529.

2009-10 Faculty in the News

Weapons of mass persuasion
Sydney Morning Herald, February 23, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
In a provocative new book, Atomic Obsession, Ohio State University professor John Mueller argues that the fear of nuclear weapons is too often overstated, distorting the response. ''The world has managed to live for two-thirds of a century with increasing numbers of nuclear weapons, now amounting to tens of thousands dispersed over several countries. Plenty have existed, but none have gone off. The notion that they automatically will somehow explode or cause major trouble could now use, one might think, some re-examination rather than empty, if alarming, repetition,'' Mueller writes. This stands in stark contrast to the bellicose warning delivered last week by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: ''Iran has threatened other countries. Iran has funded terrorists who have launched attacks within other countries. Iran is the largest supporter of terrorism in the world today.'' An Iran with nuclear weapons would set off a nuclear arms race in the region.

Is a run for governor in Bayh’s future? Indiana Democrats hope so
Associated Press, February 21, 2010
Expert: Paul Beck
Sen. Evan Bayh is going to be looking for work soon. Indiana Democrats are looking for a solid candidate for governor in 2012. ... Bayh wouldn’t be the first former governor to reclaim his old office. James Rhodes won election as Ohio governor in 1962 and 1966, was out of office for four years, then was elected again in 1974 and 1978. Paul Beck, a political science professor at Ohio State University, said Rhodes built up state parks and increased highway construction projects during his first two terms, largely by issuing bonds. Those debts, however, caught up with him during his second two terms, when the economy was struggling. "I think that probably tarnished his legacy," Beck said.

Libertarians hope to parlay discontent into votes
Columbus Dispatch, February 20, 2010
Expert: Paul Beck
The party that advocates the small -- small taxes, small government, small infringements on personal freedom -- is trying to grow up and play with the big boys. Seemingly better organized, and riding a wave of anti-government sentiment fueled by a poor economy, rising deficits and a national Tea Party movement, Libertarians want to harness the public's dissatisfaction with the two major parties to become a true force in Ohio politics. Paul Beck, an Ohio State University political-science professor, said the popularity of third parties ebbs and flows. "It's probably at its height when there is a good deal of distrust of incumbents and negative feelings toward the two major parties," he said. Though it's still unlikely to translate into victories, Beck said, Libertarians can have an impact on state races. "Right now, the momentum is with the Republicans because they are the out party," he said. "If third-party candidates can divide the oppositional sentiment, (Democrats) can eke out some victories."

U.S.: Telecom Lobby Tests Pledge of Transparency
Inter Press Service, February 15, 2010
Expert: Peter Shane
Despite President Barack Obama's pledge in his State of the Union address last month to "require lobbyists to disclose each contact they make on behalf of a client with my administration or Congress," the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) says the Obama administration has been "fighting hard to stop the release of the names of these representatives." ... It said President Obama "must apply this policy to pending litigation, and release the identities of telecommunications representatives who lobbied for immunity for their telecommunications carrier clients." Prof. Peter Shane of Ohio State University's law school is among many legal experts who agree with the EFF position. "On his first full day in office, President Obama issued a presidential memorandum that declared: 'The presumption of disclosure should be applied to all decisions involving FOIA.' ... It's hard to see why the straightforward application of these principles would not lead to releasing the names of lobbyists," Shane said.

Entropy and Geopolitics
Counterpoint, ABC Radio National, February 15, 2010
Expert: Randall Schweller
Michael Duffy: With the end of the Cold War, international politics changed hugely, and observers have been struggling to define this ever since. Our next guest says modern geopolitics is a plotless, post-modern chaos starring a menagerie of wildly incongruent themes and protagonists. According to political scientist Randy Schweller, who is from Ohio State University, to make sense of this we should turn to the second law of thermodynamics and its concept of entropy. I spoke with him recently. I began by asking him to remind us just what does entropy mean.

Marjah's Long Game: Months of Patrols
The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2010
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Although the major offensive under way in Marjah is the largest yet undertaken by allies in Afghanistan, it will look a lot like previous so-called clearing operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan – a sudden, violent invasion followed by months of painstaking patrols to win over the local population. According to military analysts and senior defense officials involved in the operation, the length of the fighting and the subsequent pacification effort will be highly dependent on the Taliban's willingness to stay and fight. .. "The actual fighting should be over in a couple weeks, at most," said retired Col. Peter Mansoor, a professor of military history at Ohio State University who served as executive officer to then-Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus. "The Taliban certainly doesn't have the strength in that city to hold out against a determined Marine assault."

Changing History: Four new ways to write the story of the world
Boston Globe, February 7, 2010
Expert: Geoffrey Parker
A newer strain of environmental history is looking at the ways that the environment itself can guide the course of history. In this reading, the environment becomes not only the object of human cultivation or despoliation, but an actor itself. A prime example is the work of Geoffrey Parker at Ohio State University. Parker’s forthcoming book focuses on the period between 1635 and 1665, three of the most tumultuous decades that the world has known ... Historians call the decades of the mid-17th century the General Crisis - and they have long wondered what might explain this global outbreak of violence and unrest. Parker’s provocative thesis is that the link, essentially, was the weather. Winters from China to North America to Europe were some of the coldest in history, and growing seasons in normally clement parts of the world were disrupted in some places by drought and in others by torrential rains. The Nile River fell to some of the lowest levels ever recorded, and growing glaciers engulfed entire towns in the Alps. All of this sudden climatic change was deeply destabilizing. In an earlier work, Parker quoted Voltaire to make his larger point: "Three things exercise a constant influence over the minds of men: climate, government and religion." Historians neglect the first of these, Parker argues, at their peril.

Air marshals say service roiled with cronyism, chaos
CNN, February 5, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
Despite calls from President Obama to beef up the program designed to provide security aboard U.S. flights, the Federal Air Marshal Service is in disarray, a CNN investigation has found. In more than a dozen interviews across the country, air marshals said the agency is rife with cronyism; age, gender and racial discrimination; and attempts by managers to make the agency appear more efficient than it is by padding numbers. John Mueller, a political science professor at Ohio State University, has completed a cost-benefit analysis of U.S. aviation security. He concluded many measures such as FAMS are little more than a waste of taxpayer dollars. "We have seen with the underwear bomber (AbdulMutallab), the passengers aren't going to sit around waiting for someone else to do something. Because their lives are at stake, they are going to jump in. So essentially from a hijackers' standpoint, this idea of replicating 9/11 is close to impossible as far as I can see," Mueller said.

Ohio House Democrats have plan to redistrict
Columbus Dispatch, February 1, 2010
Expert: Richard Gunther
Supporters of finding new, less political ways of drawing legislative and congressional districts say it's time for Democrats and Republicans to marry their ideas. House Democrats introduced a plan yesterday that would allow the public to submit legislative maps, which then would be graded based on four criteria, including whether districts could produce a fair number of representatives from each party, whether districts are competitive, and the number of times municipalities are divided. Senate Republicans passed a plan in September that would create a bipartisan board that would need a supermajority vote to approve maps for both legislative and congressional districts. "These bills should not be considered rivals of one another. They are perfectly compatible," said Richard Gunther, political science professor at Ohio State University.

Parties Fight Over District Redrawing
Ohio News Network, February 1, 2010
Expert: Richard Gunther
They can often look like cartoon characters, but they are actually legislative districts. Wacky in size and shape, drawn every ten years.  There's even a term for it. "You remember 8th grade social studies?  Remember gerrymandering?  That's the best way to describe it to citizens," said Catherine Turcer with Ohio Citizen Action. Part of the criteria ends one-party control over the process. "It's absolutely clear that the party that did the gerrymandering the last time around is benefiting by being over represented," said Dr. Richard Gunther, political science professor from The Ohio State University. Gunther points to the last reapportionment in 2001.  At that time Republicans drew the lines, and the Democratic gains in 2006 and 2008 meant little. "A state like Ohio that had voted in favor of Democratic candidates in the last couple elections is completely dominated by Republicans as a direct result in how these district boundaries have been stacked," Gunther added.

Checking Obama’s Math on Supreme Court Ruling
The Wall Streeet Journal, January 29, 2010
Expert: David Stebenne
President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address that the Supreme Court struck down a “century of law” when it ruled against limits on corporate spending in elections. Some bloggers are objecting to the characterization, noting that the ruling voided a section of the Taft-Hartley Act. That act, passed in 1947, is a mere 63 years old. So what’s the justification for the “century” claim? The Tillman Act, the first federal law to ban corporations and national banks from contributing to campaigns, was passed in 1907, or 103 years ago. True, that act didn’t explicitly ban independent expenditures to elect candidates — the target of the Supreme Court’s ruling—but maybe that’s because television didn’t exist at the time. "Until you have the modern media environment you don’t really have the vehicles to do the expenditures," said David Stebenne, a legal and political historian at the Ohio State University. "When the Progressive Era statute is adopted there isn't radio or television."

Stephen Walt: The State Of The Union I Won't Hear
NPR, reprinted from Foreign Policy, January 27, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
don't expect President Obama to devote much time to foreign policy issues during his State of the Union address tomorrow. ... But what would I like to hear him say on Wednesday night? If I may indulge in a bit of (unrealistic) fantasy for the moment, here's an announcement he could make that would really make me sit up and take notice ... " I have decided to appoint an informal "Team B" to provide me with an alternative strategic vision over the remainder of my first term. ... I am pleased to announce that this advisory panel will be chaired by Ambassador Charles B. Freeman, one of our finest and most experienced diplomats and a remarkably creative and independent thinker. The other members of Team B will include ... Professor John Mueller of Ohio State University ... ".

Office of Legal Counsel Makes Waves with Work on Gitmo Cases
Main Justice, January 26, 2010
Expert: Peter Shane
In deciding the fate of dozens of inmates at Guantanamo Bay, federal judges have been thrust into the position of crafting law that could end up governing U.S. detention of terror suspects around the world. With so much at stake, Attorney General Eric Holder has relied heavily on the Justice Department unit that contemplates the executive branch’s thorniest legal questions, the Office of Legal Counsel, giving way to an unusual system where advisers are editing the work of the advocates. "OLC is generally not an advocacy unit," said Peter Shane, a law professor at Ohio State University and a former OLC lawyer during the Carter administration. "A large part of the office's credibility has been based on the notion that it has kind of a quasi-adjudicative role."

Obama's focus on job creation may require bipartisanship
Columbus Dispatch, January 26, 2010
Expert: Paul Beck
President Obama will lay out a State of the Union agenda Wednesday focusing heavily on the economy and job creation. But with rival Republicans in Congress emboldened by their party's stunning Senate win in Massachusetts ... will Obama's first true State of the Union speech lead only to more legislative gridlock on major issues? It doesn't have to be a lost 10 months, said Paul Beck, a political-science professor at Ohio State University. "Things can get done, (though) clearly there has been a momentum shift" toward Republicans, Beck said. "If I were running the country, I would change tactics now, and Obama is quite capable of doing that. I can see him returning to attempts to strike bipartisan compromises."

Populating a Military History Program: The "School Solution"
Blog Them Out of the Stone Age, January 26, 2010
Expert: Mark Grimsley
Three weeks ago I asked readers to populate a military history program based on having, notionally, two, three, or four faculty lines available to fill.  I received a number of very thoughtful replies and promised to eventually offer my own solution.  ... There is no one best configuration.  But working from the limited menu of choices offered on my original post, I’d go with the following: Two faculty members (the minimum needed for a graduate field): modern US military history (1903-present), modern European military history (1871-present). Three faculty members: Add  Pre-1750 World Military History (I’m following the lead of some of you in rejecting my original formulation, which would have been "pre-1500 world military history, non-specific as to region"; I would also restrict the research focus to East Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, or Southwest Asia.) Four faculty members: You don’t need four.

The Year That Was
The New York Times, January 24, 2010
Expert: Mary Elise Sarotte, former postdoctoral fellow
Europe’s geopolitical map, just 20 years after the breach of the Berlin Wall, looks like a foregone conclusion today — the natural upshot of Communism's demise and the spread of liberal democracy. The Central Europeans are snugly in the European Union; NATO presides over a largely peaceful continent; and though spats between the West and an authoritarian Russia occasionally flare, this is surely understandable given all the givens. But this order of things was hardly inevitable, as Mary Elise Sarotte, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, reminds us in "1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe." Between the wall’s opening (November 1989) and Germany’s unification (October 1990), history lurched forward with no fixed destination. Sarotte describes a host of competing conceptions of post-cold-war Europe that flourished, mutated and perished in the maelstrom of events that led up to German unity. In the end, the visions of President George H. W. Bush and Chancellor Helmut Kohl prevailed — which may not necessarily have been the best of all possible outcomes, though Sarotte stops short of this conclusion.

Exaggerating the alarm over a nuclear attack
Short Stack, Washington Post blog, January 21, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
How much should the prospect of a nuclear attack frighten us? In the view of John Meuller, a professor of political science at Ohio State University, our worries about nuclear weapons and their use by sovereign states and stateless terrorists border on obsession. Fact is, he points out in "Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda," published by Oxford University Press, nuclear weapons have not been used since World War II. In this controversial book, he argues that efforts to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction have themselves caused widespread suffering and violence.

Slavery of today: Campus confronts global and local crime of human trafficking
The Lantern, January 20, 2010
Mershon Center Event
The students and faculty who filled a room in Jennings Hall last Tuesday were confronted with the fact that slavery is not merely history - it is still present in the modern world. The Mershon Center presented "Trafficking and Civil Society: Denial, Distress, Danger" to raise awareness of human trafficking. The panel addressed this crime - exploiting people by force, coercion or fraud with the intent to use them for manual labor or as sex slaves - as the fastest growing illegal activity in the world. Ambassador Mark Lagon, executive director and CEO of Polaris Project (an anti-human trafficking organization) discussed the responsibilities civil society has in fighting human trafficking.

Forgotten Chinese Photographer Resurrected
The Two-Way, NPR blog, January 19, 2010
Expert: Eliza Ho
Famous war photographer Robert Capa ... was a seminal figure in the world of photojournalism; his work is familiar to many. But how many of you can say you've heard of Sha Fei, the Chinese photojournalist who was covering the same events as Capa? Until recently, many Chinese hadn't even heard of him. Sha Fei's promising career in photojournalism took a turn for the worse when he fell mentally ill in his late 30s. He was tried and executed for murder in 1950, and his story was thereafter repressed. An exhibition of Sha Fei's work debuts today for the first time in America -- at Ohio State University's Urban Arts Space. The curator, Eliza Ho, was awarded a Presidential Fellowship by OSU to complete a graduate dissertation on Sha Fei.

Obama Follows Reagan-era Blueprint After Earthquake in Haiti
HNN, January 18, 2010
Expert: Alexander Poster
In response to the Haitian earthquake, one of the costliest natural disasters ever to strike the Caribbean, President Obama took immediate action.  After promising an initial commitment of $100 million to earthquake relief, the President insisted that further U.S. action in Haiti would be necessary, stating “this investment will grow over the coming year”.  Not surprisingly, right-wing pundit Rush Limbaugh voiced his disapproval of the President’s decision.  “We've already donated to Haiti, it's called the U.S. income tax," grumbled Limbaugh, creating a firestorm of controversy that he most certainly welcomed. While Mr. Limbaugh was likely aware of the inflammatory nature of his comments, he may not have known that the framework of American humanitarian relief policy was put in place by a man he frequently cites and admires– former President Ronald Reagan.

Photos document war that shaped modern China
Columbus Dispatch, January 17, 2010
Expert: Eliza Ho
Story discusses an exhibit of photographs by Chinese war photographer Sha Fei, curated by Mershon-supported gradaute student Eliza Ho.
Chinese photographer Sha Fei managed to produce a fascinating record of the conflict that changed his nation -- the Second Sino-Japanese War of 1937-45 -- before he died in 1950 at age 38. A selection of his photographs, depicting how the war reshaped China and its people, will be on view Tuesday through March 27 in the Ohio State University Urban Arts Space, 50 W. Town St., in the old Lazarus building. "Art, Documentary, and Propaganda in Wartime China" presents 38 black-and-white photos that capture how the Chinese communist army resisted the Japanese and how the socialist revolution progressed in rural China. "The war is not well-known outside China and Japan," curator Eliza Ho said. "These images are very important. They document the rise of the Communist Party -- a socialist revolution happening in the Chinese countryside."

Atomic Overreaction: The dangerously obsessive sway of worst-case fantasies about Iran
Chronicle of Higher Education, January 10, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
Alarmism about nuclear proliferation has become common coin in the foreign-policy establishment. Anxieties now are driven in large part by Iran's apparent intention to obtain nuclear weapons. Some politicians hint that military action might be needed to keep Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb. ... But our track record with aggressive counterproliferation policies should give pause to anyone advocating such an approach. The sanctions imposed on Iraq in the 1990s, and the continuing war there, are responsible for more deaths than were inflicted by the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The uncomfortable truth is this: If Iran's leaders want to develop a nuclear weapon, there is no way to stop them, at least in the long term, except by invading the country, which would make America's costly war in Iraq look like child's play.

Obama Takes New Route to Opposing Parts of Laws
The New York Times, January 8, 2010
Expert: Peter Shane
The Obama administration is lowering the volume in a long-running argument between Congress and the executive branch over when, if ever, a president has the power to bypass federal statutes he has signed into law. In Mr. Obama’s first months in office last year, he followed recent precedent and frequently issued statements, when signing bills into law, that the executive branch could disregard provisions that he considered unconstitutional restraints on executive power. But Mr. Obama has not issued a signing statement since last summer, when one claim set off a bipartisan uproar in Congress. Peter M. Shane, an Ohio State University law professor, praised the approach as a step toward a return to the “normalcy” of how presidents used signing statements through Reagan’s first term. Mr. Shane has previously criticized the administration over its frequent early use of the device.

The proliferation of nuclear panic is politics at its most ghoulish
The Guardian, January 7, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
Some books are written to be read, others to be put in a cannon and blasted at the seat of power. Two such blasts have just crossed my desk, from academics on either side of the Atlantic. Both are on the same subject, the consequence of the irrational fear of radiation. The first book, Radiation and Reason, is by an Oxford professor of physics, Wade Allison. The second is Atomic Obsession by John Mueller, professor of political science at Ohio State University. Mueller describes the toxic fear associated with radiation from nuclear weapons. It distorts the balance of international relations and senselessly makes enemies of friends. The books jointly undermine conventional wisdom on the two greatest political challenges of the day, in the fields of energy and defence. As such, they are sensational.

Despite low odds of another attack, expect longer lines at security checkpoints
All Voices, January 7, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
The odds of a U.S.-bound airliner or a flight within the United States being hijacked are about 1 in 16.5 million, says John Mueller, a political science professor and terrorism expert at The Ohio State University. “Your chance of being killed by an international terrorist, if you live outside of a war zone and you live to be 80, is 1 in 75,000,” Mueller said. But even with odds so low – people have a 1-in-80 chance of dying in a car crash in their lifetimes – officials insist that more needs to be done to stop future terrorist attacks. And those changes could affect passengers boarding nearly every flight.

Brunner OKs 4 minor parties for ballot
Columbus Dispatch, January 5, 2010
Expert: Paul Beck
Candidates from as many as six political parties could be on the ballot for governor or other offices in Ohio this year. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner issued a directive last week continuing ballot access for the Libertarian, Green, Socialist and Constitution parties in addition to the Democratic and Republican parties. ... Although supporters of broader ballot access say it gives voters more options and encourages greater voter participation, critics say candidates who have little chance to win can help decide who does, in some cases. ... That's one of the reasons that the two major parties have resisted making it easier for minor parties to qualify for the ballot in Ohio and other states, said Paul Beck, an Ohio State University professor of political science.

Don't Fear the 2010s
The Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
As a sadly appropriate parting gift to this grim first decade of the 21st century ... we can thank Nigerian would-be suicide bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab for robbing us of our inalienable right to use a cramped bathroom at 30,000 feet. ... While Mr. Abdulmutallab's underwear bomb thankfully did not explode en route from Amsterdam to Detroit, his botched attempt (and the heroic acts of passengers) has reignited one of the decade's most pervasive—and overblown—anxieties: that terrorist violence would become "the new normal," an everyday occurrence in the United States. As Ohio State political scientist John Mueller has documented, such fears are as erroneous as they are deeply held. "The likelihood that a person living outside a war zone will perish at the hands of an international terrorist over an eighty-year period is about one in 80,000," wrote Mr. Mueller in the American Interest in 2008. "By comparison, an American's chance of dying in an auto accident over the same time interval is one in eighty."

Think Again: Nuclear Weapons
Foreign Policy, January 1, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
In this opinion piece, Mueller argues that President Obama’s pledge to rid the world of atomic bombs is a waste of breath, but not for the reasons you might think.
Obama's plan, unveiled before the world in a speech in Prague last April, represents an ambitious attempt to rid the world of nukes. Under the president's scheme, developing countries would have access to an internationally monitored bank of nuclear fuel but would be barred from producing weapons-grade materials themselves. Existing warheads would be secured, and major powers such as Russia and the United States would pledge to scale back their weapons programs. In September, the U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution in support of Obama's proposal, giving his massive project some institutional backing. But all of this is scarcely needed. Nuclear weapons are already disappearing, and elaborate international plans like the one Obama is pushing aren't needed to make it happen.

Nuclear bunkum: Don’t panic: bin Laden’s WMD are mythical, too
The American Conservative, January 1, 2010
Expert: John Mueller
In this opinion piece, Mueller argues that al-Qaeda is not likely to obtain nuclear weapons
According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, every senior government leader is kept awake at night by “the thought of a terrorist ending up with a weapon of mass destruction, especially nuclear.” This is, I suppose, understandable. It was in 1995 that the thoughtful analyst Graham Allison declared that “in the absence of a determined program of action, we have every reason to anticipate acts of nuclear terrorism against American targets before this decade is out.” Unabashed, he maintained in an influential 2004 book that “on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on America in the decade ahead is more likely than not.” And it was on “60 Minutes,” on Nov. 14, 2004, that former CIA analyst Michael Scheuer assured his rapt interviewer that the explosion of a nuclear or dirty bomb in the United States was “probably a near thing.” In contrast to such bold proclamations, the evidence about the degree to which al-Qaeda — the only Islamic terrorist organization that targets the U.S. homeland — has pursued, or even had much interest in, a nuclear-weapons program is limited and often ambiguous.

Abdurrahman Wahid, Former Indonesian President, Dies at Age 69
Business Week, December 30, 2009
Expert: Bill Liddle
Former Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid, the country’s first democratically elected leader after the fall of Suharto, died yesterday in a Jakarta hospital following a long illness. He was 69. ... “He was a Muslim figure who showed Christians and Hindus that it was possible for the Islamic community to cooperate with non-Muslims at a time when other Islamic activists were moving more in the direction of fundamentalism,” R. William Liddle, professor of political science at Ohio State University, said by telephone. “He represented a more moderate Islam.” Liddle, a former Fulbright scholar in Indonesia and former chair of the Indonesia Committee and Southeast Asia Council of the Association for Asian Studies, knew Wahid for more than 30 years.

Five Reasons for Optimism
Reason.com, December 17, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
Columnist Jesse Walker considers five positive trends that underlie the miserable events of the past decade. No. 1 is a surge in non-violence.
That reflects not just a surge in civil resistance but a rise in another kind of nonviolence. In his 2004 book The Remnants of War, the Ohio State political scientist John Mueller notes that traditional state-on-state warfare is far rarer today than at any other point in modern history. Civil wars persist, but even they are not as common as they were two decades ago. Mueller may exaggerate when he writes that warfare "is moving toward obsolescence, rather in the manner of slavery and dueling before it." But he has spotted a real and laudable change. For the United States the aughts may have been a decade of war, with American soldiers bogged down in bloody conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. On a global scale, though, we're seeing a strong if unsteady march toward peace.

Ennui Becomes Us
The National Interest, December 16, 2009
Expert: Randall Schweller
Contemporary international relations is moving toward a state of entropy. Chaos and randomness abound. Now, the story of world politics unfolds without coherence, unfettered by classic balance-of-power politics, a plotless postmodern work starring a menagerie of wildly incongruent themes and protagonists, as if divinely plucked from different historical ages and placed in a time machine set for the third millennium. ... The increasing disorder of our world will lead eventually to a sort of global ennui mixed with a disturbingly large dose of individual extremism and dogmatic posturing by states. It is the result of the unstemmable tide of entropy. A world subsumed by the inexorable forces of randomness, tipped off its axis, swirling in a cloud of information overload. Who would have thought a mere half decade ago we would be turning to physics for the answers to international politics.

The U.S. Civil Rights Movement as an Insurgency
Schneier on Security, December 15, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
Schneier kicks off an extended debate of Grimsley's blog post arguing that the civil rights movement was an insurgency. From the blog post of March 18, 2009:
Most Americans fail to appreciate that the Civil Rights movement was about the overthrow of an entrenched political order in each of the Southern states, that the segregationists who controlled this order did not hesitate to employ violence (law enforcement, paramilitary, mob) to preserve it, and that for nearly a century the federal government tacitly or overtly supported the segregationist state governments. That the Civil Rights movement employed nonviolent tactics should fool us no more than it did the segregationists, who correctly saw themselves as being at war. Significant change was never going to occur within the political system: it had to be forced. The aim of the segregationists was to keep the federal government on the sidelines. The aim of the Civil Rights movement was to "capture" the federal government -- to get it to apply its weight against the Southern states. As to why it matters: a major reason we were slow to grasp the emergence and extent of the insurgency in Iraq is that it didn't -- and doesn't -- look like a classic insurgency. In fact, the official Department of Defense definition of insurgency still reflects a Vietnam era understanding of the term. Looking at the Civil Rights movement as an insurgency is useful because it assists in thinking more comprehensively about the phenomenon of insurgency and assists in a more complete -- and therefore more useful -- definition of the term.

WH Releases Open Government Directive: Transparency (Plus) Engagement (Equals) More Democracy
Huffington Post, December 8, 2009
Expert: Peter Shane
The White House this morning released a long-awaited Open Government Directive that follows up on the president's promise -- memorialized on his first full day of office -- to usher in a new era of transparent, participatory governance. What is arguably most impressive about the Directive, as highlighted in a public briefing by CIO Vivek Kundra and and CTO Aneesh Chopra, is its specificity and focus on execution. ... This is exciting stuff, but it only heightens the need for what communication scholars call "trusted intermediaries" to help everyday citizens make the maximum use of new information resources.
Also see the NPR blog, The Two-Way: Obama Issues Open Gov't Rules To Federal Agencies

The End of the Age of War
Newsweek, December 7, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
The truth is that we are now living in one of the most peaceful periods since war first arose 10 or 12 millennia ago. The relative calm of our era, say scientists who study warfare in history and even prehistory, belies the popular, pessimistic notion that war is so deeply rooted in our nature that we can never abolish it. In fact, war seems to be a largely cultural phenomenon, which culture is now helping us eradicate. Some scholars now even cautiously speculate that the era of traditional war—fought by two uniformed, state-sponsored armies—might be drawing to a close. "War could be on the verge of ceasing to exist as a substantial phenomenon," says John Mueller, a political scientist at Ohio State University. That might sound crazy, but consider: if war is defined as a conflict between two or more nations resulting in at least 1,000 deaths in a year, there have been no wars since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and no wars between major industrialized powers since World War II. Civil wars have also declined from their peak in the early 1990s, when fighting tore apart Rwanda, the Balkans, and other regions. Most armed conflicts now consist of low-level guerrilla campaigns, insurgencies, and terrorism — what Mueller calls the "remnants of war."

Government sure to improve if we build a better map
Columbus Dispatch, December 6, 2009
Expert: Richard Gunther
This commentary by Joe Hallett discusses an effort by the League of Women Voters to reform how congressional districts are drawn.
After each decennial Census count, the party that won two of the three offices of governor, secretary of state and auditor effectively controlled the mapping process. The result has been a preponderance of can't-lose districts, effectively taking the middle out of Ohio politics. With so few competitive districts, partisan primaries, not general elections, too often determine who represents us at the Statehouse and in Congress. "People who vote in primaries are inclined to be more ideologically extreme, and they elect candidates who are ideologically extreme, and that is very bad for our democracy," said Richard Gunther, an Ohio State University political science professor and expert on redistricting. "It adds to the poisoning of our political atmosphere."

Professor's time in Indonesia a highlight of his career
The Lantern, December 2, 2009
Expert: Bill Liddle
For 45 years, professor R. William Liddle has been a fixture of the political science department at Ohio State University. ... Liddle describes his specific concentration on Indonesia as an “accidental choice” during a time when there was so much of interest. “There was a real explosion of interest in that part of the world because of the countries that had just been freed from colonial rule after World War II,” he said. “It was fascinating to see what was going to happen in this newly emerging world.” ... Over the course of his career, Liddle has had several extended stays in Indonesia, when he focused on research. He has lived in many different places, ranging from big cities like Jakarta to small villages in Java without paved roads or electricity. “I’ve gotten to watch this developing country become what it is today,” he said.

President's Afghan drawdown plan called risky, 'unrealistic'
CNN, December 2, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
President Obama's timetable for winding down the war in Afghanistan may be too short for the United States to achieve its war aims but too long to hold American public support, observers said Tuesday.
The president is ordering military officials to get the reinforcements to Afghanistan within six months. But Peter Mansoor, a retired U.S. Army colonel who helped plan the "surge" campaign in Iraq in 2006, said the "critical element" in U.S. plans "is time, not necessarily troops. ... Any counterinsurgency takes years to fully tamp down the insurgents and create a viable state that we can leave as U.S. troops withdraw," Mansoor told CNN. He said it is possible that U.S. troops could stabilize Afghanistan within the three-year horizon Obama is laying out, but "I just wouldn't want to take the risk that it will be, and I'd like to see a longer-term strategy out of the administration."

Obama's Afghanistan Plan Draws Mixed Reaction
Ohio News Network, December 2, 1009
Expert: John Mueller
President Obama's decision to increase troops in Afghanistan is getting resistance from his Democratic base. Experts remember when another liberal, Lyndon Johnson, decided to escalate the war in Southeast Asia. "Any analogy to Vietnam certainly does look very pleasant for the Obama situation," said Ohio State professor John Mueller. "It doesn't follow that they're identical by any means, but nonetheless it's a tricky issue." Mueller is an expert on public opinion and war. He says Obama can learn from LBJ, and the cracking of his political base. "Both Johnson and Obama came in essentially as anti-war candidates in one form or another. And both then found themselves with a mess on their hands," Mueller said.

OSU Military Scholar Supports President's Decision Sending More Troops To Afghanistan
WOSU News, December 1, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
A military scholar at Ohio State University has mixed reactions to what is known thus far about President Obama's military plan for Afghanistan. The retired Army colonel says he supports additional troops, but is concerned about withdrawing those troops too quickly. "I think they're absolutely necessary to arrest the downward spiral in the security situation," Mansoor says. "And put the Taliban back on its heels. Then we can look at stabilizing the Afghan state, growing the Afghan security forces and improving the capacity of the Afghan government to meet the needs of its people. And then a few years down the road look at withdrawing our forces slowly over time."

The political stakes of Obama's Afghanistan war speech
The Christian Science Montor, November 27, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
President Obama has his work cut out for him Tuesday evening when he addresses the nation on the Afghanistan war. Obama will announce his decision in a televised speech from the US Military Academy at West Point on Tuesday at 8 p.m., Eastern time. Some analysts don’t expect Obama’s highly choreographed rollout of the new Afghanistan policy to have much impact on public opinion. “There’s almost no evidence that the bully pulpit works, even though he’s one of the best communicators ever,” says John Mueller, an expert on war and public opinion at Ohio State University in Columbus. “I would be very surprised if he moved opinion very much for any length of time.”

President Obama must sell war to anti-war base
Politico.com, November 27, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
One analyst of public sentiment in wartime warned any progress is likely to be accompanied by an increase in American casualties. “If [Obama’s] going to be more aggressive militarily, it means more Americans are going to die and that’s the thing that moves public opinion more than anything else,” said John Mueller, a professor of political science at Ohio State University. Mueller noted that once Americans give up on a war, it’s difficult to get them back on board even when there’s compelling evidence of a turnaround on the ground. “Once people are turned off on a war they tend to stay turned off,” Mueller said. “That’s what happened in Iraq. Even when it became clear that the war was decidedly going better, the numbers of people who supported it didn’t move much.”

Khalid Shaikh Mohammed in Federal Court
Blog Them Out of the Stone Age, November 26, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
In the past couple of days I’ve searched the blogosphere for comment on Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to try KSM and four other defendants in federal court.  As far as I can judge, opinion concerning this decision is largely — one might almost say overwhelmingly — negative.  But equally, as far as I can judge, these opinions appear in venues hostile to the Obama administration, which leads me to question whether their authors have weighed the issue dispassionately.  Certainly “dispassionate” is the last adjective I would apply to their assessments. Here’s my sense of the most common objections to a civilian trial, followed by the responses I find most persuasive.

Putting Local Journalism at the Core of Higher Education
Huffington Post, November 23, 2009
Expert: Peter Shane
Last Friday, about 35 of us got together at Ohio State for an informal symposium about the local implications of Informing Communities: Sustaining Democracy in the Digital Age, which was the final report of the Knight Commission on the Information Needs of Communities in a Democracy. As the Commission's former executive director, I had the privilege of starting the day with a brief history of the Commission's work and a summary of some of its key themes. In addition, however, I posed the following question to those present: What would it be like to organize an entire college or university education around the idea of journalism? Here is the portion of my talk that addressed this idea.

PERSPECTIVE: Strickland to pick running mate soon
Associated Press, November 17, 2009
Expert: Paul Beck
Gov. Ted Strickland, whose popularity has declined with the economy, will soon pick his running mate and begin his 2010 re-election campaign in earnest. While political observers say the importance of the lieutenant governor nominee shouldn't be overstated, voter unease is complicating an election that once looked solid for the Democratic governor. A recent poll showed Strickland in a virtual tie with Republican challenger John Kasich. "Governors, in picking running mates, try to balance the ticket and bring somebody, or a strength, to the ticket that they don't necessarily have themselves," said Paul Beck, who teaches political science at Ohio State University. "In Strickland's case, that might be organized labor. That might be a more Democratically inclined part of the state than southeast Ohio."

Reviewing the Af Pak Strategic Review
Blog Them Out of the Stone Age, November 15, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
This blog entry discusses President Obama's long review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.
So here we are, creeping up on Thanksgiving, and the Afghanistan / Pakistan strategic review still remains underway.  Latest reports have it that President Obama will not unveil the new strategic direction until the conclusion of his Asia trip, and possibly not until December. Should this be worrisome?  Absolutely, if you read Fred and Kimberly Kagan, who recently lamented “The Cost of Dithering” in the Weekly Standard.   Not at all, if you read Steven Metz’s “The Hurry-Up Offensive” in The New Republic. So who is more nearly correct? A few days ago I began making inquiries about this to a number of contacts both here at the Army War College and in the wider national security community.  A very definite pattern soon emerged.

Nukes? No Big Whoop
Bloggingheads.tv, November 11, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
Mueller discusses his new book Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda with Robert Farley of the University of Kentucky, author of Lawyers, Guns and Money. Segments include John’s new book, “Atomic Obsession” (01:28); The incredibly small odds of a nuclear terrorist attack (03:03); Why Obama’s arms control efforts may be counterproductive (05:34); John: Israel can live with Iran having the bomb (07:36); Fears of a crippling electromagnetic pulse attack (03:13; and Why are we obsessed with atomic weapons? (04:50)

The language of war
Columbus Dispatch, November 8, 2009
Experts: Peter Mansoor, Margaret Mills
The story discusses the work of Mission Essential Personnel, which trains translators and linguists to operate in war zones such as Afghanistan.
Translators are vital in Afghanistan and Iraq, said Peter Mansoor, an Ohio State University military history professor and retired Army colonel. He served two tours of duty in Iraq, the second as an adviser to Army Gen. David Petraeus, then-commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and current chief of the U.S. Central Command, and is the author of Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq. "If you can't communicate with the people there during a counterinsurgency, you're stuck. You mar the objective," Mansoor said. "They are more important than combat power in many instances, or another way to look at it is they are combat power in a counterinsurgency environment."

Margaret Mills, a professor of Near Eastern languages and cultures, spent April and May in Afghanistan. While there, she spoke with a wide range of people. "Generally speaking, what they said was, 'We don't want to be an occupied country,'  " she said. "But the majority were saying the United States can't leave now and cannot ever leave precipitously or there will be a civil war and occupation by their neighboring countries." Even Afghan-Americans who speak fluent Pashto or Dari face problems in Afghanistan. "They are seen as carpetbaggers, which is often not fair," Mills said. "Because of this, they are being scrutinized and tested to see if they are still Afghani."

Tweeting in Class
Inside Higher Education, November 5, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
Grimsley leaves a long comment at the end of a story that discusses whether or not social media like Twitter is useful in higher education.
First observation: Within the military there's been a fierce debate about the value of social utilities. Arrayed on the one side are those who are enthusiastic or at least willing to experiment with them. ... On the other are those opposed to social utilities because of fears -- sometimes well grounded, sometimes not -- about security concerns. That debate has largely been won by the enthusiasts. ... Second observation: By comparison, academics remain enormously hidebound about social utilities. I routinely hear academics who have never laid eyes on Twitter or Facebook dismiss them with would-be clever put downs based on sheer ignorance. Such people sound like nothing so much as medieval scribes grousing about the advent of movable type.

Mueller on the Zazi Case: "This is It?"
Informed Comment, November 4, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
John Mueller, author of Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, writes a guest op-ed for Juan Cole's blog.
Terrorism analysts and officials triumphantly claimed that the case of Najibullah Zazi, arrested last September, is different. They call it the "most serious" terrorism plot uncovered in the United States since 2001 and one that elevates the domestic terrorism threat to a "new magnitude." Bruce Riedel, an Obama terrorism adviser, proclaimed on the Lehrer NewsHour on October 16 that the plot was evidence that "al-Qaeda was trying to carry out another mass-casualty attack in the United States" like 9/11 and that the group continues to pose a threat to the country that is "existential." This, then, was the big one. However, assuming all the information put out by the government about the Zazi plot is accurate, our existence is unlikely to be expunged anytime soon.
Story was discussed on November 9, 2009, by Bruce Schneier's blog Schneier on Security

Anti-Casino Ad Draws Criticism From Issue 3 Supporters, Opponents
NBC-4, November 3, 2009
Expert: Paul Beck
Supporters of the Issue 3 campaign to build four new casinos in Ohio are criticizing a television ad that features burning buildings and imagery evocative of domestic violence. The ad from the group Families Against Issue 3 states, “Casinos kill families…and communities as well." The Ohio State University political science professor Paul Beck told NBC 4 television ads like the ad in question attempt to influence voter turnout. “Both sides are extreme in either the positive or negative consequences,“ Beck said. “One way you get higher turnout is by scaring people.“

Ohio Shaping Up As Battleground in 2010
National Public Radio, November 2, 2009
Expert: Paul Beck
Ohio State University political scientist Paul Beck says Democratic strategists in next year's election will be closely tracking the president's popularity. And he says they'll hope for some big legislative success, such as the passage of a health care overhaul as an offset to the still-anemic economy. But Beck points out another major concern for Democrats: voter enthusiasm. Last year, Democrats up and down the ticket all across the country were buoyed by the tremendous excitement generated by the Obama candidacy. Young people and minorities were especially energized. Beck says the question for 2010 is how much a falloff in enthusiasm hurts Democratic candidates next year when Obama is not at the top of the ticket.

Democracy is Hard
Blog Them Out of the Stone Age, October 30, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
Last week a group of historians met in Columbus to discuss the interpretive framework for Ohio’s observance of the Civil War Sesquicentennial. (The Ohio Historical Society organized the event; the Ohio Humanities Council sponsored it.) The first order of business was to offer our initial thoughts on “An Overarching Theme: The Big Picture.” On a scratch pad I scribbled “Democracy is hard” and “War as an engine of social change.” We wound up discussing these and other potential themes — “Memory” and “Transformation” — and at the end of the day, “Democracy is Hard” was one of those we decided to explore in more detail. I was tasked to write a brief summary.

Talking to Serious Nuke Players
Economic Policy Journal blog, October 29, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
This blog entry by Economic Policy Journal editor Robert Wenzel recounts discussion after a forum at the Cato Institute on Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda. The forum featured the author, John Mueller, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Ohio State University; Michael Krepon, Co-Founder, Henry L. Stimson Center; and Jeffrey G. Lewis, Director, Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative, New America Foundation. Moderated by Justin Logan, Associate Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute. In the book, Mueller argues that the nuclear threat is overblown. He says, for example, that a terrorist suitcase attack on New York City, if possible at all, would destroy no more than 1% of the city. The fear that a nuclear attack means total devastation of the planet doesn't hold at all, he points out, and the odds are slim that terrorists could launch any type of nuclear attack, or that most nations would want to.

Tuesday morning book club
Foreign Policy, October 27, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
On his Foreign Policy blog, Stephen Walt reviews "four new books you ought to read." First is up Mueller's latest book, Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda, which "relentlessly punctures the various ways that analysts of all persuasions have overstated the dangers and the importance of nuclear weapons. (For a preview of Mueller's argument, see the FP excerpt here). It is an equal-opportunity critique, as Mueller goes after hawks, doves, realists, and other Cassandras with equal relish and a playful but pungent wit. He emphasizes that nuclear weapons are in fact highly destructive and need to be handled with great care, but convincingly shows that policymakers and pundits have 1) routinely exaggerated their destructive power (i.e., by suggesting they can "destroy the world"), 2) inflated their importance in deterring war, imparting influence, or enhancing status, and 3) overstated the risk of nuclear accidents, nuclear terrorism, or other very low-probability events. ... Added bonus: It's immensely fun to read."

Troops already outnumber Taliban 12-1
Associated Press, October 28, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
There are already more than 100,000 international troops in Afghanistan working with 200,000 Afghan security forces and police. It adds up to a 12-1 numerical advantage over Taliban rebels, but it hasn't led to anything close to victory "The ratio of friendly to enemy forces would be a crucial aspect only if you could actually get at the enemy. But with an enemy that doesn't wear uniforms and hides among the population, that's very hard to do," said Mansoor. "The crucial aspect in this case is the ratio of security force to population — this is much more relevant. This would require one security person to every 50 people. In a country of about 32 million, this means about 600,000 security personnel would be needed to clamp it down."

'09 casino war is quirky
Columbus Dispatch, October 26, 2009
Expert: Paul Beck
Story discusses the battle for endorsements for a proposal on November ballot to place casinos in the downtowns of Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Toledo. The endorsement sweepstakes might be a big deal for partisans on both sides of the ballot measure, but it's not likely to make a huge difference with voters, said Beck. "There's probably a significant number of voters (that) will relate to the issue on (a gut) level right away," Beck said. "They don't need to know who's endorsing on both sides."

Prerequisite: Experience in War
Inside Higher Education, October 22, 2009
Expert: Dorothy Noyes
Story discusses Ohio State's new Veterans Learning Community, managed by Susan Hanson. Noyes said that although pulling military students out of the general population taking classes on war might make it seem like non-military students are missing out on hearing firsthand about life in war, the goal is actually to give them a better understanding of those experiences. After military students have "more sheltered conversations in the two-course sequence, we can then have these students as guest lecturers in classes or bring them into public venues," she said. "We want to use this as a way to get vets more comfortable talking about their experiences with nonvets, whether other students, their families or anyone else."

Obama weighs Afghan strategy, not just troop buildup
Washington Times, October 15, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Intense debate has raged for weeks on whether President Obama should send 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan, but the dispute over numbers may be distracting attention from the more important decision he is facing: the need for a new strategy. Mansoor said Obama's military reviews "are addressing all three facets of strategy: ends, ways, and means.""The media, and by extension the American people, are focused on means, (troop numbers)," Mansoor said in an e-mail. "But as or more important than this factor are the administration's goals (ends) in Afghanistan and its concept for prosecution of the war (ways). You need to look at all three in unison to get a clear picture of the way ahead."

S.C. has swelling carbon footprint
The (Charleston, S.C.) Post and Courier, October 12, 2009
Expert: Andy Keeler
The story discusses a study that showed only two states had faster rising carbon footprints than South Carolina. To economists, greenhouse gases are "externalities," products that no one pays for but still have a cost. Putting a price on carbon would incorporate the costs of global warming into our consumption of fossil fuels and send a signal to the market that other forms of energy, such as wind and solar power, are truly competitive, said Andrew Keeler, an economist with Ohio State's John Glenn School of Public Affairs.

Obama's Afghan meetings a public affair
Washington Times, October 11, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
President Obama's weeks-long review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan has turned the normally secretive process of deciding how many troops to deploy to a war zone into an oddly public affair. Even the enemy was trying to influence the outcome. Al-Qaeda placed a statement on Web sites this week saying it does "not have any agenda to harm other countries.""That was a political message to President Obama in an attempt to change the terms of the debate," said Mansoor. "You can see all sides ratcheting up the pressure on the president - more pressure than would perhaps otherwise be there if this process was going on behind closed doors."

Obama's Peace Prize: The World Bets on America
Huffington Post, October 9, 2009
Expert: Peter Shane
It's a safe bet that President Obama's first words this morning were something akin to, "I won what??" This is, after all, the man who conceded that Arizona State had a point in thinking an honorary degree might be premature. President Obama - whom I admire deeply - has been in office under 10 months, and the menu of world conflicts seems pretty much as long as last January. In short, it also seems a safe bet that, in choosing President Obama for the Nobel Peace Prize, the Committee wanted to send a larger message. As I read it, that message is, "America, we need you."

President Petraeus?
NPR Political Junkie, October 5, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Ken Rudin discusses speculation that Gen. David Petraeus might run for president in 2012, quoting Mansoor's statement that "General Petraeus has not hinted to anyone that he is interested in political life, and in fact has said on many occasions that he's not." Rudin doesn't think a run by Petraeus is likely. "But if the Afghanistan war goes sour, and if the public feels that it's because the Obama administration strategy was incorrect, there might very well be more calls for a Petraeus candidacy. Lot of 'ifs' in that sentence."

Zeal for Afghan war appears to wane
Columbus Dispatch, October 5, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
The story discusses Obama's "second thoughts" about approving requests from Gen. Stanley McChrystal for an additional 40,000 troops in Afghanistan. Mansoor supports the request. "It's the only alternative that's been proposed to date in which I can see the possibility of success," said Mansoor. "It's certainly a long road and a tough slog and would require more resources -- the most important of which is more time," said Mansoor, who now is a professor of military history at Ohio State University. "If you look at the alternatives, they lead to dead ends."

Grand New Party: Danger Ahead
Forbes.com, October 5, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
Reihan Salam discusses Mueller's argument at " that our thinking about war and terrorism is completely, and dangerously, half-baked." He agrees that we'd be better served if our leaders worked to reduce our fear of dirty bombs and hijacked planes rather than to increase our fear. But he takes the more conventional view that we have good reasons beyond minimizing the number of avoidable deaths to fight terrorism.

Voice of Bush’s Favored General Is Now Harder to Hear
The New York Times, October 4, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
A change in the status of Gen. David Petraeus under the Obama administration has fueled speculation in Washington about whether Petraeus might seek the presidency in 2012. "General Petraeus has not hinted to anyone that he is interested in political life, and in fact has said on many occasions that he’s not," said Mansoor, who was the executive officer to General Petraeus when he was the top American commander in Iraq. "It is other people who are looking at his popularity and saying that he would be a good presidential candidate, and I think rightly that makes the administration a little suspicious of him."

Obama's Advisers Divided On Afghan War
NPR's Morning Edition, October 1, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
President Obama discussed the options for the war in Afghanistan at the White House yesterday with his war council. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, says the effort will fail without more U.S. forces on the ground. That assessment is backed by Obama's top military advisor, Adm. Michael Mullen, and by Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of all U.S. forces from the Middle East to central Asia. Mansoor agrees. "If President Obama decides that he's going to override the advice -- the best military advice of his commanders in the field --then he owns the outcome of the conflict," Mansoor said.

General: U.S. Accelerating Iraq Withdrawal
NPR's All Things Considered, September 30, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Iraq war commander Gen. Ray Odierno told Congress he plans to cut the number of American troops in Iraq this year, and again after Iraqi elections in January, so that by the end of next summer, there will only be 50,000 American forces in the country. Mansoor said that U.S. troops are acting as more of an honest broker between the rival factions in Iraq rather than as war fighters. "The psychological dynamic of the U.S. presence is more important than the physical dynamic, and therefore a withdrawal of several thousand troops this year, followed by tens of thousands next year, is possible provided that the Iraqi political progress continues," he said.

Obama and McChrystal Don’t Talk? Good, Says Army Historian
Wired Magazine, September 30, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
Grimsley reacts to the revelation on 60 Minutes that President Obama has consulted with Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan, only once. "On the whole, presidents utilize their secretaries of defense — they exist for a reason — and for the most part confine their direct consultations to their regional combatant commanders," Grimsley said. "Obama can and does confer regularly with McChrystal's boss, [U.S. Central Command chief] Gen. David Petraeus, and that’s as it should be… Obama's practice is thus the rule, not the exception."

My post-RNC progression: Ask yourself, am I a lemon, a drunk, a Che, or an Alexander Wendt?
Minnesota Daily, September 28, 2009
Expert: Alexander Wendt
A student protestor arrested at the Republican National Convention last year reflects on the evolution of her thinking about international relations and politics since then. She places herself in the social constructivist camp, crediting Wendt. "Social constructivism is a theory that is based on the human consciousness and its place in world affairs. ... We are the way we are because of a system of norms that has been arranged by a certain people at a particular time. And if we build it up, we can most certainly tear it down. It is the counter-argument to realists who say, 'That's just the way things are.' Because that's not true. It doesn't have to be."

Resourcing an Afghan Strategy
Council on Foreign Relations, Sept. 28, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Six analysts -- Peter Mansoor, Andrew J. Bacevich, Amin Tarzi, Thomas E. Ricks, Candace Rondeaux, and John A. Nagl -- offer a range of strategic choices for U.S. planners in Afghanistan. "Gen. McChrystal's strategy and his strategic assessment is on the mark," Mansoor writes. "The way to win is with a strategy to protect the people. Such a strategy, historically based, requires about one counterinsurgent for every fifty people. Given the size of Afghanistan, both in terms of terrain and in numbers of people, you're looking at a force somewhere between four hundred and six hundred thousand. Clearly we are under-resourced for that kind of mission."

Editorial: Getting it Right
Philadelphia Inquirer, September 27, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
A number of experts are reassessing not just the strategy but the U.S. goal in Afghanistan. Some of the debate has been in the Council on Foreign Relations periodical Foreign Affairs. In one article, Ohio State University political scientist John Mueller points out that al-Qaeda doesn't need a secure base for its terrorist operations. He also notes that the operational base for 9/11 was Hamburg, Germany. Mueller says many previous notions are no longer valid. For example, FBI Director Robert Mueller in 2002 estimated there were up to 5,000 al-Qaeda operatives in the United States. But after eight years of "well-funded sleuthing," not a single al-Qaeda sleeper cell has been found in this country.

A Different View: So What If Iran Gets The Bomb?
The Atlantic, September 25, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
John Mueller, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at The Ohio State University, has written Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, and his thesis is that the world's magical thinking and alarmism about nuclear energy and nuclear weapons has significantly distorted policy making and threatens to leave the United States more vulnerable to more pressing threats. Mueller's opinions are not shared by most of his colleagues, but they are taken seriously. Marc Ambinder, editor of The Atlantic, asked Mueller to put the news about Iran in the context of his theories. How much of a threat is Iran's proliferation? How much of a threat is the West's obsession with Iran's proliferation?

Six things economists wish journalists knew about greenhouse gas reduction
Dallas Morning News, September 21, 2009
Expert: Andy Keeler
Reporter attending the McCormick Energy Solutions Conference for journalists at Ohio State University recaps an address by Keeler. Item 1: It makes economic sense to reduce greenhouse gases. Even though doing so costs money, it will end up costing us even more if we do nothing. Dealing with the effects of global warming, of seeing Texas and the Southwest become a dustbowl, could be financially devastating.

US missile rethink a huge shift
BBC News, September 19, 2009
Expert: Sean Kay
Story examine President Obama's decision to scrap a missile defense shield, citing Kay as a supporter. Dr Sean Kay of the Mershon Center for International Security Studies at Ohio State University wrote in a paper back in February: "These systems are not tested or proven and many European NATO allies are skeptical of the benefits. Even if these systems did eventually work they would not address the spectrum of related threats. Furthermore, they have damaged the NATO-Russia relationship in ways that risk undermining the existing balance of power in the European area."

The Arena: Missile Defense
Politico.com, September 18, 2009
Expert: Sean Kay
Kay debates President Obama's decision to scrap a missile defense shield with Sally McNamara of the Heritage Foundation. "First, we now have, generally speaking, a very wise decision to align missile defense with actual capabilities and actual threats. Second, this will be well received, actually by many European allies, and create opportunities for additional engagement."

From Baghdad to Kabul: The Historical Roots of U.S. Counterinsurgency Doctrine
Origins, September 15, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Mansoor examines the historical context of counterinsurgency, challenges in Iraq and Afghanistan, and keys to successful counterinsurgency.

The End of the Revenge Fantasy
Campus Progress, September 11, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
A sophomore at Harvard examines the legacy of 9/11, concluding the U.S. response was out of proportion to the attacks and the Iraq war was counterproductive. "As John Mueller of Ohio State University has argued, if terrorism continues to claim the number of lives it has for the past twenty years or so, it is a trivial threat to American lives in comparison to automobile accidents and is roughly equivalent to the number killed by lightning or allergic reactions to peanuts."

MoD blocked warning that Britain faces Afghan defeat
The Times, September 6, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Story is on British Ministry of Defence's suppression of a report that warns British troops are facing defeat in Afghanistan. The decision to block publication of the report coincided with a scathing attack by Mansoor on the "arrogance" of UK tactics in Iraq. Writing in the British Army Review, Mansoor said Britain's political and military leaders had abdicated responsibility in Basra by failing to protect local people.

The Army is making the same old mistakes in Afghanistan, say soldiers
The Times, September 3, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Story considers a series of articles in British Army Review that say Britain is not learning from its experience in Iraq for the war in Afghanistan. Mansoor: "Only through a thorough appreciation of the mistakes it made in Iraq can the British Army turn defeat into victory as it fights the untidy wars of the early 21st century. It should not ... gloss over its recent experience in Iraq ... Although the conditions [in Afghanistan] are different, the lessons of Iraq are still relevant.

From COIN to containment
Foreign Policy, September 1, 2009
Expert: Sean Kay
Kay lays out a plan for Afghanistan: "After eight years of war, the United States has developed its first comprehensive counter-insurgency (COIN) strategy for Afghanistan. There are, however, fundamental flaws of timing and resources making this plan the right idea, but tragically several years too late. Rather than sending even more troops, the United States should keep the existing numbers but redeploy, and then begin reducing them, in the service of a new strategy of containment."

Iran's nuclear capability
WCBE-FM, August 28, 2009
Expert: Richard Herrmann
This interview took place after Herrmann spoke about "Iran: Tyranny or Democracy" to the Columbus Council on World Affairs. He discussed democracy in Iran, analyzing the events and protests surrounding the recent presidential election and offering recommendations to the Obama Administration.

152 elected positions up for grabs come November
Canton Repository, August 22, 2009
Expert: Paul Beck
Story examines elections for local seats in which candidates are not affiliated with a political party. Beck traces this to the Progressive Party's efforts to combat corrupt party machinery in the late 19th and early 20th century. One of the trade-offs, though, has been historically low voter turnout in nonpartisan elections, Beck said. He added that studies have shown that the wealthiest and best-educated candidates have a better chance of winning. "Local notables tend to do well," Beck said.

Almost 100 dead in Baghdad attacks
Financial Times, August 19, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
The story examines long-term prospects in Iraq after a string of attacks claimed the lives of almost 100 people shortly after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from major cities. Mansoor says it's not likely U.S. troops will go back into cities to keep the peace. "Regrettably, I think we can't go back in," he said, saying that such a move would in any event be unpalatable to most Americans and Iraqis. "The Iraqi government got ahead of itself. It is declaring the war over when it is far from over. We no longer have coercive leverage. Now the challenge is to persuade ... Part of what needs to change is Maliki’s behavior."

NATO, US Troops Continue Fighting Taliban in Afghanistan
Voice of America News, August 19, 2009
Expert: Sean Kay
Story examines the status of the war in Afghanistan. Kay says the Taliban have changed some of their methods. "The Taliban have adopted tactics that came out of Iraq - the suicide bombings that used to never happen in Afghanistan have been happening much more regularly, the improvised explosive devices on the ground - a very serious threat to our men and women taking risks for the country on the ground," he said.

Women at Arms: Living and fighting alongside men, and fitting in
The New York Times, August 17, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Second story in a series that looks at how the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have changed the role of women in the military. "There was a fear if we integrate units, you will have a bunch of young people with raging hormones, and it will end up in too many unwanted pregnancies, and it's more trouble than it's worth," said Mansoor, a former battalion commander in Iraq who served as Gen. David H. Petraeus's executive officer. "With good leadership and mentorship, we have been able to keep those problems to a minimum."

Women at Arms: GI Jane breaks the combat barrier
The New York Times, August 15, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
The story examines the changing role of women in the military, especially their participation in combat. "Iraq has advanced the cause of full integration for women in the Army by leaps and bounds," said Mansoor, who served as executive officer to Gen. David H. Petraeus in Iraq. "They have earned the confidence and respect of male colleagues." Mansoor and several other experts said it is only a matter of time before regulations that have restricted women’s participation in war will be adjusted to meet the reality forged over the last eight years.

Donors fickle, GOP leaders find
The Columbus Dispatch, August 9, 2009
Expert: Paul Beck
A study by the Dispatch found that the vast majority of top donors to House GOP lawmakers in the past election cycle have switched allegiance to majority Democrats. The newspaper reported that 24 of the top 30 political-action committee contributors to House Republicans in the 2007-08 cycle are now throwing a majority of their support to House Democrats. Beck was not surprised. "Money follows power," he said. "Most business groups are very much inclined to want to have conversations with who is in power." Beck and others say that above all else, political contributions buy access to key lawmakers. "Legislative leaders and those responsible for raising money are not at all reluctant to twist arms and put the pressure on," he said.

Afghanistan Dilemma: Is Obama on the Right Course?
CQ Researcher, August 7, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
The article examines President Obama's decision to increase troop strength in Afghanistan. In considering critics of this decision, it cites Mueller's skepticism that al-Qaida needs Afghanistan as a base to plot future terrorist attacks. The 2001 terror attacks against the United States were orchestrated mostly from Hamburg, Germany, he points out.

Facebook Fatwa: Part Deux
Blog Them Out of the Stone Age, August 6, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
In this entry in his well-regarded military history blog, Grimsley discusses the debate raging in the Pentagon about social media tools such as Facebook and Twitter. "ADM (Mike) Mullen and others see these as important forums for STRATCOM — Strategic Communication.  Others, especially those charged with defending the DoD computer net against cyberattack, see the dangers as outweighing the advantages. Facebook, for instance, offers too many openings for hackers to exploit and once in the system, they can do a lot of mischief.  And still others Just Don't Get It.  Short wave radio using Morse code was good enough in their day.  What need of new-fangled media like Web 2.0?"

Protecting U.S. Attorneys From At-Will Discharge
American Constitutional Society blog, July 31, 2009
Expert: Peter Shane
The blog entry is a response to revelations of Karl Rove's involvement in the firing of federal prosecutors during the Bush administration. "Yesterday's revelations about Karl Rove's hand in the firing of U.S. attorneys make clear that the time has come to protect U.S. attorneys, by statute, from at-will discharge," Shane says. "Like other quasi-independent law enforcers -- members, for example, of the Federal Trade Commission -- they should be subject to discharge only for good cause, such as malfeasance, neglect of office or incapacity. The rule of law depends on the public's confidence in the evenhanded administration of justice. The Bush White House proved that such confidence may well be unwarranted under the current system."

U.S. Adviser to Iraqi Military Urges Early U.S. Exit
Associated Press, July 30, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Timothy Reese, U.S. Army adviser to the Iraqi military command in Baghdad, argues in an internal memo that the U.S. should ''declare victory and go home'' next year, 16 months ahead of schedule. Reese says the years-long American effort to train, equip and advise Iraqi security forces has reached a point of rapidly diminishing returns, and that Iraqi forces already are good enough to defend the government against the weakened terrorist and insurgent forces that remain. Mansoor, who was executive officer to Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq, said he is not convinced the Iraqis will not need or want U.S. forces to perform an extended advisory role. ''A lot of what this Iraqi government is doing is for internal consumption to solidify its nationalist credentials going into the national elections in January,'' Mansoor said. ''Once those elections are over and a government is in place, they may look at their situation differently and realize that a longer-term relationship with the United States -- to include a military relationship -- is in their interests.''

Conference to examine threat of potentially cataclysmic 'pulse'
Buffalo News, July 29, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
The story discusses a conference in New York about the "electromagnetic pulse," the idea that terrorists could detonate a nuclear device at high altitude so the burst of energy fries circuit boards below. The idea is gaining traction among some in Congress and the Defense Department. Mueller doesn't give it much credence. "I don't think the U.S. could do this today, much less North Korea, especially without testing," said Mueller. "It sits in a long range of hysterical predictions about nukes that have been going on since 1945."

Well, Better Barbs Than Bombs, Eh? A War of Words Between U.S. and North Korea
Washington Post, July 24, 2009
Expert: Mitchell Lerner
The story explores the war of words between the United States and North Korea that resembles school yard taunts. Lerner says this fits right into U.S.-North Korean relations. "American officials have long failed to understand that North Korean diplomacy is not about negotiating," Lerner said. "It's about making an impression both at home and to their allies. . . . As their political system and economic system become more unstable -- they become more belligerent and hostile and personal in their rhetoric to whomever they can point the finger of blame at."

Comparing and Contrasting Classical Realism and Neo-realism
e-International Relations blog, July 23, 2009
Experts: Alexander Wendt, Randall Schweller
The author, Arash Heydarian Pashakhanlou, cites Wendt and Schweller in a re-examination of Hans Morgenthau's and Kenneth Waltz's theories of international relations. He says Schweller "convincingly argues that in an anarchic system where all states primary goal is survival, the units would have no incentive to pursue power at all since that would risk undermining their principal goal: survival. In Schweller's words: Waltz constructs 'a world of all cops and no robbers' and must therefore make further interventions at the unit-level and bring revisionist goals into his analysis in order to trigger power competition." Established in November 2007, e-IR aims to collect, in one digital repository, a wide variety of resources helpful to students of international politics, diplomacy and global governance.

President Obama's Signing Statements and Congress's Response: A Return to Separation of Powers Sanity?
Executive Watch blog, July 21, 2009
Expert: Peter Shane
In this blog entry, a shorter version of which appeared in Huffington Post, Shane examines President Obama's use of signing statements, or executive statements added when a president signs a bill passed by Congress. The use of these statements exploded under President Bush. Shane comes to the preliminary conclusion that their use is returning more to normal under Obama, noting three interesting trends: only two of Obama's nine signing statements are unconventional, the volume is in line with Presidents Reagan and Clinton, and that Congress has awakened to its own authorities.

War is Over?
Freakonomics blog, The New York Times, July 13, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
The blog, by Freakonomics authors Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt, discusses Mueller's paper in Political Science Quarterly in which Mueller argues that there have been no wars between developed nations since 1945, and that other international wars that fit the classic definition — the violent resolution of a dispute between two or more nations — have become exceedingly rare.

Looking at U.S. Professional Military Education
Blog Them Out of the Stone Age, July 13, 2009
Expert: Mark Grimsley
This is the first of a three-part entry exploring professional military education in the United States. Grimsley is associate professor of history at Ohio State, but currently the visiting Harold Keith Johnson Chair of Military History at the U.S. Army War College, where he will stay until 2010. His popular military history blog won the Cliopatria Award in 2005.

Obama's System of Justice For Alleged Terror Suspects Under Scrutiny
The Public Record, July 10, 2009
Expert: Peter Shane
In a story about what to do with detainees being held in Guantanamo Bay, Shane questions both the constitutionality and wisdom of indefinite detention for suspected terrorists. "If the United States has custody of people too dangerous to release, but not properly subject to criminal trial, the correct approach is to seek congressional authority to hold such persons for the duration of the conflict against al Qaeda and the Taliban," Shane said. "Anyone potentially subject to detention on the equivalent of POW grounds should be afforded strict procedural protections to insure fundamental fairness in the determination of enemy combatant status."

No More War?
The Monkey Cage blog, July 7, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
Blog author Lee Siegelman, political scientist at George Washington University, discusses Mueller's recent piece in American Political Science Review, from the quote "We may be reaching a point where war – in both its international and civil varieties – ceases, or nearly ceases, to exist." Siegelman explores Mueller's accounting of four different kinds of war, noting that it "might even cause us to rethink some of our favorite theories."

The Rocket's Red Glare
Foreign Policy, July 7, 2009
Expert: John Mueller
Mueller explores the changing meanings of the term "weapons of mass destruction." From the article: "If you thought that Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction when the United States invaded in 2003, you were wrong. Actually, Iraq had tons of WMD then, and it has them now, too -- as does virtually every other country in the world. The United States, of course, has WMD -- but you may be surprised to learn that it has had them for centuries, ever since the days when Francis Scott Key wrote those famous words about 'bombs bursting in air.'"

U.S. Foreign Policy
Open Line, WOSU-AM 820, July 6, 2009
Expert: Sean Kay
Kay discusses U.S. foreign policy in a time of conflict. Topics include President Obama's visit to Russia, Iran, and more. With host Charlene Brown.

Link Between Iraq Violence, Troop Withdrawals Considered
The Washington Post, July 5, 2009
Expert: Peter Mansoor
Story examines a recent spike in violence in Iraq, which is prompting senior defense officials to ask whether the gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities has provided an opening to extremist groups eager to spark sectarian attacks between Sunnis and Shiites. Mansoor comments on Iraq's chances of holding together. "If Sunnis and Shiites continue to work through their differences politically, Iraq will survive. If not, there is no way it will hold together," said Mansoor. "We put ourselves between the sects and functioned as honest brokers. That was our primary leverage."