In a new Foreign Affairs posting, Mershon's John Mueller argues that observers should not underestimate Vladimir Putin's prospects of staying in power. To be sure, history will judge his Ukraine invasion as a debacle -- but history also offers numerous examples of autocrats who have survived catastrophic defeats. "Vlad the Self-Impaler" may well live to fight another day, and Western negotiators will do well to take this into account.

You can read the piece at Foreign Affairs (paywall), at the CATO Institute site, or in PDF from the Department of Political Science.